Remember when you could order a new laptop and have it show up in a week without breaking a sweat—or your budget? Those days are feeling increasingly like a distant memory.

If you’ve tried to purchase computers, upgrade servers, or even just buy some additional RAM for your business lately, you’ve probably noticed something: prices are climbing. Fast. And unlike past tech price fluctuations, this one has some staying power behind it. Let’s unpack what’s happening, why it matters to your business, and what you can actually do about it.

What’s Driving the Price Surge?

Two major forces have collided to create what industry analysts are calling a “Component Cost Super-Cycle.” Think of it as the perfect storm, except instead of rain, it’s dollar signs pouring out of your IT budget.

The AI Appetite is Insatiable

Here’s the twist nobody saw coming: artificial intelligence isn’t just changing how we work—it’s fundamentally reshaping the hardware supply chain. The massive data centers powering AI models like ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and countless enterprise tools require enormous amounts of specialized memory called High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM). And guess who makes that memory? The same three companies (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) that make the regular RAM in your laptops and servers.

The math is brutal: HBM commands profit margins four times higher than standard DDR5 memory. So where do you think manufacturers are focusing their limited factory capacity? It’s not on your office computers.

The result? DRAM prices have surged over 170% year-over-year, with analysts forecasting another 50-55% increase in early 2026. Memory that accounted for 10-12% of a PC’s cost in early 2025 now represents roughly 18%—and climbing.

Tariffs Add Fuel to the Fire

If AI demand was the match, trade policy is the accelerant. Tariffs on goods from China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and other manufacturing hubs have pushed component costs even higher. While some computer parts received exemptions, others—like power supplies, fans, and coolers—did not.

Major PC manufacturers have already responded:

  • Dell has announced 15-20% price increases on desktops and laptops
  • Lenovo warned business clients that all quotes expire at the start of 2026
  • ASUS implemented “strategic price adjustments” across their lineup
  • Small system builders face even steeper increases of 20-45%

What This Means for Your Business

This isn’t a temporary hiccup. Industry experts suggest tight supply conditions could persist through 2027 or even 2028, with one major controller manufacturer predicting shortages lasting a decade.

The Bottom Line Impact

For a typical small or mid-sized business, here’s what the numbers look like:

  • That $1,000 laptop you bought last year? Expect to pay $1,150-$1,200 for the same specs
  • High-end workstations could see increases of $300-$500
  • Server upgrades are hitting particularly hard, with 512GB memory modules commanding spot-market prices exceeding $12,000
  • Graphics cards—critical for design, video, and some specialized applications—are routinely selling 40-60% above MSRP

The Ripple Effects

Beyond sticker shock, consider:

  • Extended delivery times as manufacturers ration supply
  • Reduced availability of budget-tier options as manufacturers focus on higher-margin products
  • Pressure on your technology refresh cycles
  • Increased competition for available inventory

The Accounting Angle: What You Need to Consider

This is where we put on our CPA hats. Rising hardware costs aren’t just an IT problem—they have real implications for your financial planning and reporting.

Budgeting and Forecasting

If your 2026 IT budget was built on 2024 pricing assumptions, it’s time for a reality check. Consider:

  • Building 15-25% contingency into technology line items
  • Shifting from annual to quarterly budget reviews for IT spending
  • Separating “must-have” replacements from “nice-to-have” upgrades
  • Exploring leasing or Device-as-a-Service (DaaS) models to spread costs

Asset Management and Depreciation

The economics of technology refresh cycles are shifting:

  • Extend useful life where possible: That three-year laptop cycle might stretch to four or five years for machines that aren’t showing their age
  • Review depreciation schedules: If you’re keeping equipment longer, your depreciation assumptions may need adjustment
  • Track book value vs. functional value: A fully depreciated laptop may still have years of productive life—don’t replace purely because the accounting says it’s “worth zero”
  • Consider accelerated depreciation: Section 179 and bonus depreciation rules still allow immediate expensing of qualified equipment purchases—potentially valuable if you’re buying now ahead of further increases

Cash Flow Considerations

  • Higher hardware costs mean larger capital outlays or increased monthly payments for leased equipment
  • Consider whether CapEx or OpEx treatment better serves your financial position
  • Factor in timing—buying in Q1 when prices are expected to spike versus Q4 when holiday sales might offer relief

Insurance and Risk

Rising replacement costs affect your business insurance calculations:

  • Review technology coverage limits to ensure they reflect current replacement values, not what you paid years ago
  • Document your technology inventory with current market values
  • Consider business interruption coverage implications if hardware failures lead to extended downtime

Practical Steps to Navigate the Squeeze

Okay, enough doom and gloom. Here’s what you can actually do:

Audit Before You Buy

Before any purchase, conduct a thorough inventory:

  • Identify equipment that truly needs replacement vs. equipment that would be “nice” to upgrade
  • Look for underutilized assets that could be redeployed
  • Trim redundant software subscriptions to free up budget for hardware

Get Strategic About Timing

  • If you know you’ll need equipment in the next 6-12 months, buying sooner rather than later may lock in current pricing
  • Watch for promotional windows (Black Friday, Cyber Monday, end-of-quarter vendor pushes)
  • Consider certified refurbished equipment from reputable sources

Extend What You Can

  • Memory and SSD upgrades can breathe new life into aging machines at a fraction of replacement cost
  • Professional cleaning and maintenance extends hardware life
  • Operating system updates (like moving to Windows 11 before Windows 10 support ends in October 2025) keep older hardware viable

Explore Alternative Models

  • Cloud desktops and virtual desktop infrastructure can reduce local hardware requirements
  • Device-as-a-Service programs spread costs over time and transfer refresh headaches to the provider
  • Consider whether some roles could function with lighter-weight (less expensive) devices

Plan for the Long Term

  • Build a rolling 3-year technology roadmap rather than operating year-to-year
  • Stagger purchases to avoid “everything fails at once” scenarios
  • Document end-of-life dates and budget accordingly

The Silver Lining (Yes, There Is One)

Challenging markets force smarter decisions. This is an opportunity to:

  • Finally conduct that comprehensive IT audit you’ve been putting off
  • Build more disciplined technology lifecycle management
  • Question whether you need top-spec equipment for every role
  • Strengthen relationships with reliable vendors who can help you navigate supply constraints

The businesses that come out strongest will be those that plan proactively rather than react in panic when equipment fails.

How We Can Help

As your accounting partner, we see the full picture—how technology investments flow through your financials, affect your tax position, and impact your cash flow. If you’re wrestling with IT budget questions, refresh cycle decisions, or the accounting implications of lease-vs-buy choices, let’s talk. Sometimes a conversation about computers is really a conversation about capital allocation, and that’s right in our wheelhouse.

Questions about how rising tech costs affect your 2026 planning? Wondering about the tax implications of that equipment purchase you’ve been delaying? Reach out—we’re happy to help you think through the numbers.